Welcome to this edition of the NFL DFS Showdown SZN breakdown. The aim of this post is to look at the best players to build around and constructions to focus on for the night’s NFL DFS showdown contests on Draftkings. We run the Portfolio Manager to see what differences we can find in projected ownership and likely exposure. Likewise, we take into account the whole lineup’s projection and ownership.
For conversation and game theory on the charts with updated ownership distributions as well as the top ownership lineups, jump in the Paydirt discord! Free with this link: https://discord.gg/mQ6u5dfawF
Showdown Captain ownership distributions
- There are plenty of cheap captains with strong edges, though I prefer Jadarian Price (+2.18% edge).
- The expensive captains are all negative edge, with Rhamondre Stevenson sticking out at -5.76% since I think his actual ownership will be higher.
- Because of the slate dynamics at play here, I think you are mostly ignoring these numbers. I’ll talk about it a bit later.
Showdown FLEX ownership distributions
- Romeo Doubs has the highest edge in the FLEX at +7.07%.
- Rhamondre Stevenson has the highest negative edge here at -21.68%.
- The Patriots DST has a positive here here at +4.89% which I think is interesting.
Duplication projections and DFS lineups to avoid
Here is a sample of the lineups in terms of highest projected duplications from the portfolio manager. To clarify, you should avoid playing these lineups in large field GPPs tonight:
- By my count (math) there are 841 lineups with a projected duplication projection over 100. Yay NFL!
- If you play any of those 9 lineups with a duplication count over 1,000 you should just donate that money to a local charity or something instead, your EV is shot.
- Drake Maye in the FLEX is the highest exposed player in the highly duped lineups with a slight negative edge, Jason Meyers maintains a positive edge at 35.79% owned in these bad boys.
You have to care about dupes whether you like it or not, and this slate is a terrific place to drive that home. I will note that we have an even mix here in terms of NE/SEA, I think that this slate will have a pretty even mix of both sides. Also think it’s interesting that both Rhamondre Stevenson and Jadarian Price show for the highest average dupes (355.51 and 365.83 respectively). Probably wanna avoid those guys together.
Filtered Portfolio Analysis
The above are exposures sorted by ownership edge of players from a filtered portfolio. I removed lineups with 25+ dupes projected, dropped lineups with more than 1 player with a projection below 5, and filtered for captains with a projection of 10+.
Some notes from this filtered set.
- No matter what I do I can’t get Rhamondre Stevenson to be a good play, he’s negative edge in everything I run.
- AJ Brown is the captain with the highest edge here at +3.18%, Mack Hollins is the FLEX with the highest edge at +14.82%
- You’ll notice a LOT of FLEX guys with positive edges, that’s mostly because of heavily condensed ownership on the main guys.
The Portfolio Manager sees sees no way to make Stevenson work. He projects great, but the ownership is really heavy for a situation where we have so much uncertainty. I generally think that the Patriots have prepared for no Henderson which would lead to more dispersed work between backups, not to mention that it’s week 1 and nobody knows a god damn thing. He’s a fine piece to lower volatility and a much better option in smaller fields but be careful with him in the bigger stuff.
DFS Showdown SZN: Final Thoughts
Welcome back to the NFL season! Pretty excited to let all the new tools do their thing.
This showdown is pretty brutal in terms of duplication projections but I do think there are some edges for us to exploit. For instance:
- It’s week 1, nobody knows anything, and there is a bunch of condensed ownership on RBBC situations
- I don’t think people will be playing for a defensive slugfest here, even though that’s pretty plausible
- There’s some real upside to rotating NE WRs for an ownership discount
The first point is super important. For instance, people are going to mostly play Jadarian Price and George Holani while ignoring Emanual Wilson even though we have no idea how much of the work each will have. Price will “lead” but to what extent? Why do we assume Holani is going to get the majority of the backup touches over Wilson who has had a capable role in the past? I’m not saying I have the answer here, but neither do you. It’s worth considering the ownership game here.
Overall I think this is kind of a lame showdown to start the season (in terms of dynamics) but it’s NFL so we ball. My main stance here are Rhamondre Stevenson needs to be in lineups with strong leverage, pairing him with Mack Hollins or AJ Brown captains are valuable. Be careful of playing the combos around JSN/Rhamondre/Darnold as I think that combo is going to be heavily duplicated. If you do want to play Stevenson, it would make sense to either remove lineups with that group or to just make sure you are playing well under the cap. Small field you can have some more lax stances here, but we are all playing for a million let’s be real.
Personally I prefer AJ Brown and Drake Maye captain lineups. I think that the NE passing game is a natural leverage point over Rhamondre Stevenson ownership and there should be some good upside for Doubs/Hollins who are both going to be too low in terms of ownership.
All in all we are happy to be back. Make sure you check out all the tools, get into the Portfolio Manager, and get ready for an awesome season!
Overvalued:
- Rhamondre Stevenson
- Drake Maye (captain)
- RBBCs
Undervalued:
- AJ Brown (captain)
- Romeo Doubs (FLEX)
- Lower scoring game builds
Good luck and bink a unique
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